Who would’ve thought bookmakers were oracles of financial markets? That’s exactly what’s been happening over the last few weeks, as the United Kingdom lurches closer to their referendum on whether to remain in the European Union.

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

This is the question Britons will have to decide on the 23 rd June.

The Vote Leave campaign has been run by prominent Conservatives Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. Their main issues centre on the economy, the NHS and immigration. The stay campaign of “Stronger In” argues Britain is stronger, safer, and better off in the EU than out. Stayers include current PM David Cameron, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and former Prime Ministers Blair and Major.

One could argue that domestic politics shouldn’t be of great concern to other economies. But this time around, that’s simply not true. If the UK votes to stay, then it’s likely to be business as usual. However, if they vote to leave, there is a very real risk that other EU members may ask the same question and go down a very similar path.

This could potentially snowball, spelling the end of the 28 country political and economic block that remains one of the world’s most ambitious experiments.

As betting agencies odds changed in favour of the “leave campaign”, financial markets tumbled in the last week. It would seem bookmakers are proving better oracles of the direction of markets than learned advisors.

Keep watching those odds, and that should give a clue as to whether a market meltdown is imminent, or a bounce back from current levels.

To Brexit 1 , or not to Brexit…

1  Britain and Exit