In November, the RBA left interest rates unchanged, and they were vindicated with a number of key measures showing the economy improving.

• Unemployment dipped under 6% (to 5.9%), a level not seen since April 2014.
• Consumer confidence hit a 6 month high with the “Turnbull effect” evident. In an environment where the banks lifted interest rates (outside the rate cycle), and debate on the merits of GST changes received much media attention, the consumer confidence survey found Australians were worried about their personal finances, but also very optimistic about economic conditions over the next 5 years (optimism was up 24%).
• Oil has fallen below $40 USp/b as US inventories have risen to their highest level for this time of year since 1930.
• The US continued with solid jobs growth and unemployment at 5%. “Most” Fed officials said conditions supporting a lift-off in interest rates could be met by December, and “some” said December was too soon. By month’s end, “most” investors expected the US to raise rates at their December 15-16 meeting.
• Just for something different… Japan has entered recession (again). This is now the 4th time since 2011, leaving the nation in recession for half this period.