Oil is back in the headlines with the breakdown of discussions in Doha over the weekend. Iran didn’t even want to come to the table, and the remaining 20 largest producers couldn’t come to an agreement. This has left the oil price at the mercy of excess supply.

The breakdown of talks largely centred on Iran resuming production after years of sanctions – under which they weren’t allowed to fill their OPEC quota and receive income. Tehran argued that because of this, they should be allowed to make up for their 2.4m barrels of oil per day allocation, and other nations should face higher cuts. Saudi Arabia disagrees.

The oil price is now likely to revisit the $30 p/b level seen earlier this year, dragging the economies of oil producing nations down with it. Historically a number of these nations have spent petrodollars on lavish indulgences, which as wealthy nations with an inelastic income stream, was mostly forgiven. However as indulgences continue, and debts begin to mount, there will be growing internal political pressures. One such example is Russia.

When will Russia break?

This is a great question posed by John Lloyd who is a contributing editor at the FT. In his Reuters article of the same title, he discusses the pressures of Western Sanctions, rock bottom oil prices, inflation, and demographic issues on the nation. He then poses the question of when will there be a Second Russian Revolution?

Interestingly, he discusses Putin’s 80-90% approval ratings, foreign policy “wins” like Crimea, and how all these pressures are building “an inculcation of pride” for Mother Russia. But the hard economic reality of recession, falling incomes, and a sparseness of imports will eventually wear through his regime.

Putin is not alone in facing these pressures. You can turn to almost any of these oil exporting nations and find similar troubles brewing. Nigeria for instance is dealing with saboteurs to the Niger Delta pipeline. As a consequence of foreign exchange shortages, Nigeria is experiencing shortfalls for premium motor spirit. This in turn is impacting economic activity and living standards.

The breakdown of talks in Doha will hurt each and every one of these nations in a far bigger sense. Constituents of some of these nations will be less tolerant of monocratic regimes. This should trigger another round of talks and some agreement.