The UK’s referendum on EU membership was notable on many fronts. One being that it was the single largest political betting market in history, with around £100m wagered on the outcome. With opinion polls closer to the date suggesting a knife edge result – it was interesting to see that most still did not believe a leave vote would win. Bookies not only lost (some paying 3:1 before the vote), but so did the UK.
Friday the 24 th began to see the results of the vote. In the Australian time zone, stock markets were initially higher, with everyone glued to the leave/remain needle movement. As the day progressed and more votes were counted, it was apparent the leave campaign was in with a solid chance. Investors panicked, and began selling UK exposed stocks like wealth managers, the banks, and broader commodity stocks. Pretty soon it was a sea of red, with the only “green spot” on the ASX being the Australian gold miners. Carnage wasn’t limited to stocks; currency markets sold the GBP to 31 year lows, and bought the greenback and yen on risk aversion. Bond prices rallied (yields fell). European stocks lost double digits.
The dust has somewhat settled since Friday’s sell down, and the cold light of day is exposing a leave campaign with no real plan (as yet). The Europeans want a quick divorce. PM David Cameron has handed in his notice. The Irish want unification, and the Scotts want the EU.
What is fast becoming apparent is we are moving into an era of middle-class revolt. Where being politically correct and globalised is no longer fashionable. Instead we are facing a Trump-style protest. The way forward will be volatile, and investors will have to reshape how they invest in order to match the new norm and its opportunity.